Our prediction: Villarreal to win @ 2.20. Valencia and Villarreal both finished in the top half last season but are struggling in the current campaign, with Valencia 19th on six points and Villarreal 12th. Villarreal have won the last two meetings and Valencia have scored just six goals in nine league games. The Valencia vs Villarreal clash, the 64th Valencian Country Derby, kicks off at the Mestalla on Saturday 24 October at 17:30 WAT (17:30 BST).
Prediction table
| Market | Our pick | Odds | Confidence |
| Match result | Villarreal win | 2.20 | 44% |
| Double chance | Villarreal or draw | 1.35 | 70% |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 goals | 1.48 | 72% |
| Correct score | 0-1 | 9.50 | 9% |
| Best value bet / Matchplug Pick | Villarreal win | 2.20 | 44% |
Odds recorded 23 October 2026.
Team news and form
It has been a terrible start for Valencia, whose six points after nine rounds are the joint-fewest the club have posted at this stage since 1997/98. They have one win this season, against Alavés in September, and have scored only six goals. Their 40-season stay in La Liga looks under growing threat in what is their final season at the Mestalla, although they have shown signs of recovery in recent weeks by losing just one of their last four league games (W1, D2). They are winless in five games at home this term (D2, L3), and they have failed to score in four of their last five home matches. Diego López and Sergi Canós are injured, and Umar Sadiq is hoped to return soon.
Villarreal finished third last season but have struggled with the demands of European football and are on their joint-second worst La Liga start since returning to the top flight in 2013/14. There was no relief in midweek, as they lost 4-3 at Liverpool in the Champions League, and they have won only once away from home this season (W1, D2, L4). Eight of their nine league points have come against sides that sat below them before this round, so this fixture offers a lifeline, but they have won only one of their last nine Saturday league games (D2, L6). Tajon Buchanan returned from a three-game absence against Liverpool.
Georges Mikautadze is expected to lead the line for Villarreal and is priced at 7/4 to score. For Valencia, Javi Guerra has attempted 17 shots without scoring, the third-most in La Liga, although five of his last six scoring appearances for the club came at home. Santi Comesaña has committed a team-high 14 fouls for Villarreal but has picked up only one yellow card.
Head-to-head – Last 5 meetings
- Villarreal 2-1 Valencia (22 February 2026, La Liga)
- Valencia 0-2 Villarreal (25 October 2025, La Liga)
- Villarreal 1-1 Valencia (15 February 2025, La Liga)
- Valencia 1-1 Villarreal (31 August 2024, La Liga)
- Valencia 1-3 Villarreal (January 2024, La Liga)
Villarreal have the better of recent meetings (W3, D2), and Valencia have scored fewer than two goals in each of the last five. Villarreal’s win here last season is their only victory in their last nine away H2Hs (D2, L6).
Why we’re backing it
Villarreal are the better team on the numbers. Only three La Liga sides had more shots on target than their 57 before this round, they carry more threat through Mikautadze and Comesaña, and Valencia’s attack is the weakest in the division. The models we checked put Villarreal at 42-49% to win, the draw at 25-27% and Valencia at 25-33%, so our 44% sits in the middle of that range.
The risk is that the price already reflects this. At 2.20 the implied probability is about 45%, so we see this as a fair price rather than a bargain. Villarreal have also been poor on the road and are coming off a draining European night in Liverpool, while Valencia have shown some recovery. A draw is a real outcome, which is why Villarreal or draw at 1.35 is our safe option. Neither side scores much, so under 3.5 goals at 1.48 looks solid, with about 2.7 goals projected in total.
Betting tips summary
- Safe pick: Villarreal or draw (double chance) @ 1.35
- Value pick: Villarreal to win @ 2.20 <- our recommended bet
- Long shot: Villarreal to win 1-0 (correct score 0-1) @ 9.50
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Valencia vs Villarreal? Villarreal are our pick at 2.20. They have won the last two meetings, and models give them about a 44% chance, against around 30% for Valencia and 26% for the draw.
What is the correct score prediction for Valencia vs Villarreal? 1-1 is the single most likely score in most models at about 12%, but with Villarreal our pick to win we back 0-1 at 9.50.
What time does Valencia vs Villarreal kick off? Saturday 24 October 2026 at 17:30 WAT (17:30 BST), at the Mestalla in Valencia.
Will both teams score? It is close to a coin flip. Models give both teams to score about 53-55%, but Valencia have scored just six goals in nine league games and have failed to score in four of their last five home matches.
Follow every pick live in our free Telegram channel. More: Handicap predictions · 1X2 predictions · Bet builder tips · How to subscribe · Matchplug blog