Spain to win & Over 1.5 goals @ 1.36. Spain have won both of their opening Nations League matches and lead Group A3 on six points, scoring seven goals along the way, while Croatia have a win and a defeat from their first two. The Spain vs Croatia clash kicks off at Stadion Poljud in Split on Tuesday 6 October at 19:45 WAT (19:45 BST).
Prediction table
|
Market |
Our pick
|
Odds |
Confidence
|
|
Match result
|
Spain win |
|
60% |
|
Both teams to score |
Yes |
1.78 |
|
|
Total goals |
Over 2.5 Over 3.5 Over 4.5 | 1.42
2.17 3.36 |
|
|
Correct score |
1-0 2-0 4-2 5-1 5-3
| 9.5
7 26 21 100
|
|
|
Best value bet / Matchplug Pick
|
Spain & Over 1.5 |
1.3 |
|
Odds correct at time of writing, 5th October 2026.
Team news and form
Spain come in with two wins from two in the Nations League, W-W, having come from behind to beat England 3-2 at Wembley, then beaten Croatia 4-1 in their first home game as world champions. Yamal has three of their seven goals, and Baena and Oyarzabal both scored off the bench against England. Pedri’s cameo at Wembley put him in line for a start. Injuries have hit the squad. Joan García and Pedro Porro withdrew before the England game, and Eric García left camp with a knee issue, with Robin Le Normand called up in his place. Grimaldo then picked up a thigh problem, and Fran García replaced him.
Croatia have been W-L, winning 2-1 at Czechia before the heavy defeat in Seville. Marco Pašalić came off the bench to score the winner against Czechia and was pushing for a starting place. Juranović and Erlić pulled out of the squad through injury. Croatia have not beaten Spain since November 2018.
Head-to-head — last five meetings
Spain 4-1 Croatia (29 Sept 2026, UEFA Nations League)
Spain 3-0 Croatia (15 June 2024, UEFA European Championship)
Croatia 0-0 Spain (18 June 2023, UEFA Nations League final, Spain won 5-4 on penalties)
Croatia 3-5 Spain (28 June 2021, UEFA European Championship)
Croatia 3-2 Spain (15 Nov 2018, UEFA Nations League)
Spain have won three of the last five meetings with Croatia, including the last three, scoring 14 goals and conceding 7. Croatia’s only win in this run came in November 2018.
Why we’re backing it
Spain scored seven goals in their first two Nations League games, beating England 3-2 at Wembley and then Croatia 4-1 in Seville. Lamine Yamal has three of them, and Baena and Oyarzabal both scored off the bench against England. Spain also started the Croatia game quickly, with Yamal scoring inside two minutes, and Croatia’s equaliser was answered within two minutes.
In Croatia’s last five completed games, from the World Cup to the Seville defeat, they conceded eight goals and kept a clean sheet only once. They conceded four in Seville and scored through Dion Beljo’s header from a Perišić cross, so they still create chances when behind. The history between these sides also leans towards goals. Four of the last five meetings produced at least three goals, including 6-0 and 3-2 in 2018, 5-3 to Spain at Euro 2021 and 3-0 to Spain at Euro 2024. Croatia also come into this match chasing points after the heavy defeat, which should keep the game open.
Betting tips summary
Safe pick: Spain win
Value pick:
Frequently asked questions
Who will win? Our model makes Spain the favourite, with a win probability of over 60%. They have won both of their opening Nations League games, scoring seven goals, and have beaten Croatia in each of the last three meetings.
What is the correct score prediction for Spain vs Croatia? Spain 3-1 is our most likely single scoreline, followed by Spain 2-1 and Spain 3-0.
What time does Spain vs Croatia kick off? The Spain vs Croatia clash kicks off at Stadion Poljud in Split on Tuesday 6 October at 19:45 WAT (19:45 BST).
Will both teams score? Yes is our pick, with 60%.