Our prediction: Sabres moneyline @ -126, and Over 6.5 goals @ -118. Buffalo (7-4-3) host Ottawa (9-6-1) at KeyBank Center on Wednesday 4 November, 7:30 p.m. ET, coming off three straight wins in California, while the Senators arrive having thrown away a three-goal lead. More daily picks sit on our NHL predictions and tips page.
The card
| Market | Our pick | Line | Confidence |
| Moneyline | Sabres | 126 | 60% |
| Total | Over 6.5 goals | 118 | 55% |
| Best bet | Sabres moneyline | 126 | 61% |
Team news
Buffalo Sabres have won three in a row on their California road trip and took seven of a possible eight points, opening a four-game homestand tonight. Tage Thompson was the first star of last week with eight points (five goals, three assists) in those wins, including a hat trick in a 7-6 win over Anaheim and two goals, one the winner, in Los Angeles. He now has 10 goals and 17 points on the season. In their last 10 games the Sabres are 5-2-3, scoring 3.3 goals and conceding 3.3 per game.
Ottawa Senators have won just once in their last four. They went 4-5-1 over their last 10, and on Sunday they blew a three-goal lead in a 6-3 loss to Anaheim. Drake Batherson is the in-form forward, with points in his last seven games. The goaltending is the bigger story: Linus Ullmark is back on the ice in practice but is listed as out tonight, so Samuel Ersson is expected in goal. Ottawa are 7-1-0 with Ullmark playing. William Eklund (ankle), Warren Foegele (knee) and André Burakovsky (lower body) are also out.
Why we’re on Buffalo
Buffalo have the better form, home ice and the goaltending edge. They went 26-10-5 at KeyBank Center last season, a 63.4% home win rate, and they have won five of their seven games as a moneyline favourite this year. They are also 6-3-0 when they outshoot the opponent, and Ottawa have a thin lineup and a backup in net.
We expect a close game, though, and that is why we are on the moneyline and not the puck line. Several models lean Senators +1.5 and our projection is Buffalo 4, Ottawa 3, so laying 1.5 goals is a stretch. If you would rather remove the risk of a regulation draw, Buffalo draw no bet is the alternative; check your book for the price.
The over comes from two goaltending situations and two teams that give up chances. Buffalo score and allow 3.3 goals per game over their last 10, Ottawa 3.2 and 3.4, which points to about 6.5 goals on its own, and Ottawa’s last game ended 6-3 while Buffalo’s win in Anaheim finished 7-6. With Ersson in net, we project 7 goals, one above the line. It is a thin edge, so it is a smaller play than the moneyline.
Best bets summary
Safe: Sabres moneyline @ -126
Value: Over 6.5 goals @ -118
Alternative: Sabres draw no bet
Expected score: Sabres 4, Senators 3
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FAQ
Who is favoured in Sabres vs Senators? Buffalo are home favourites at -126 on the moneyline, with Ottawa at +105. We are backing the Sabres to win a one-goal game.
What is the over/under for Sabres vs Senators? The total is 6.5 goals. We project 7 goals and recommend the over.
Is Linus Ullmark playing vs the Sabres? He is listed as out with a lower-body injury, even though he has returned to practice. Samuel Ersson is expected to start for Ottawa.
What time is Sabres vs Senators? Wednesday 4 November, 7:30 p.m. ET at KeyBank Center, Buffalo. It is on ESPN+.
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