Our prediction: Real Madrid to win and both teams to score @ 2.85. Roma host their first UCL home game in more than six years, with José Mourinho returning to the Stadio Olimpico in charge of Real Madrid. The Roma vs Real Madrid clash kicks off on Wednesday 14 October at 20:00 WAT (20:00 BST).
Prediction table
|
Market |
Our pick |
Odds |
Confidence |
|
Match result |
Real Madrid win |
1.75 |
58% |
|
Both teams to score |
Yes |
1.60 |
60% |
|
Total goals |
Over 2.5 goals |
1.55 |
62% |
|
Correct score |
1-2 |
11.00 |
9% |
|
Best value bet / Matchplug Pick |
Real Madrid win & BTTS |
2.85 |
45% |
Odds correct at time of writing, 13 October 2026.
Team news and form
Roma’s 1-1 draw at Fenerbahçe on matchday one stretched their winless run in European games to four (D3, L1), and a 0-0 draw at Como at the weekend, in which Donyell Malen was sent off, did not help. Another game without a win would make it five major European matches without one for the first time since September 2016. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side have lost three of their last five European home matches (W2) and face the manager who led them to the 2021/22 Conference League title.
Real Madrid beat Inter Milan 2-1 in their opener, a result they were a little fortunate to get, and held on to beat Villarreal 1-0 on Saturday after VinĂcius JĂşnior was sent off. They have lost just one UCL main draw fixture under Mourinho (W15, D3), but their away form is less convincing: four defeats in their last eight away UCL games (W4), and both of their competitive defeats this season came on the road.
Manu Koné has two goals and a yellow card in his last two games for Roma, and four of his six goals since joining the club came before half-time. Federico Valverde set up the winner against Villarreal and has eight goal contributions (G4, A4) in his last nine UCL appearances. Roma are without Mile Svilar and Bryan Cristante is a major doubt. Éder Militão and Rodrygo remain out for Madrid.
Head-to-head – Last 5 meetings
– Roma 0-2 Real Madrid (27 November 2018, Champions League)
– Real Madrid 3-0 Roma (19 September 2018, Champions League)
– Real Madrid 2-1 Roma (8 August 2018, International Champions Cup friendly)
– Real Madrid 2-0 Roma (8 March 2016, Champions League)
– Roma 0-2 Real Madrid (17 February 2016, Champions League)
Real Madrid have won eight of the 12 meetings (D1, L3), all in the Champions League, including four in a row without conceding. They have also won 19 of their last 21 UCL games against Italian opposition (L2).
Why we’re backing it
Madrid should have the better of the game, but the goals trend points to a Roma goal. Madrid’s last six UCL fixtures all produced over 2.5 goals, Roma have scored at least twice in each of their last three home European matches, and Madrid have kept a clean sheet in only two of their last eight wins in all competitions.
The risk is Madrid’s away record and a Roma side that has spent weeks looking for a win. A draw is a live outcome, and Roma have a habit of scoring late, with three of their last five competitive matches featuring goals after the 75th minute. Backing the win and both teams to score covers the most likely route to a Madrid win.
Betting tips summary
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Roma vs Real Madrid? Real Madrid are our pick, with a 58% win probability in our model. Roma’s home attacking record means a goal for them is likely.
What is the correct score prediction for Roma vs Real Madrid? 1-2 is our most likely single scoreline at 9%probability.
What time does Roma vs Real Madrid kick off?Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 20:00 WAT (20:00 BST), at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome.
Will both teams score in Roma vs Real Madrid? Yes is our pick at 60% confidence. Roma scored at least twice in each of their last three home European games.
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