Our prediction: both teams to score @ 1.50. Injury-hit PSG host Ligue 1 pre-round leaders Lyon in a clash of two sides level on 14 points, and both teams have scored in each of the last seven meetings. PSG are priced at 1.36 to win, but their injury list and Lyon’s record of scoring in Paris make the goals market the better value. The PSG vs Lyon clash kicks off at the Parc des Princes on Monday 26 October at 20:30 WAT (19:30 GMT).
Prediction table
| Market | Our pick | Odds | Confidence |
| Match result | PSG win | 1.36 | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 79% |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 72% |
| Correct score | 2-1 | 9.00 | 10% |
| Best value bet / Matchplug Pick | Both teams to score | 1.50 | 79% |
Odds correct at time of writing, 26 October 2026.
Team news and form
PSG have seven wins in a row across all competitions, including 4-2 Champions League victories over Manchester City and Barcelona, and they won 3-1 at Strasbourg on 17 October. They sit second on 14 points with a goal difference of +5 and have scored in each of their last 52 home league games, which would equal the longest such run in Ligue 1 in 50 years. The cost of the Barcelona win was several players going off injured on Tuesday. Marquinhos, Nuno Mendes, Ousmane Dembélé and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia are all out long-term. Ferran Torres has four league goals in seven appearances, and Désiré Doué has won all 13 of his Ligue 1 scoring appearances for PSG.
Lyon are one of five teams on 14 points, and are top on goal difference (+8, 13 scored and five conceded). Paulo Fonseca’s side lost 3-0 at Hoffenheim in the Europa League in midweek, after beating Nice 2-1 on 18 October, and have lost their last two away games. Keito Nakamura is suspended, Mohamed Ouedraogo and Nicolas Tagliafico are out with knee injuries, and Pavel Sulc and Loïs Openda missed Lyon’s last game. All five of Ernest Nuamah’s goals this season have come before the hour mark, but none came away from home. Referee is Jérôme Brisard.
Head-to-head – Last 5 Ligue 1 meetings
- PSG 1-2 Lyon (19 April 2026, Ligue 1)
- Lyon 2-3 PSG (9 November 2025, Ligue 1)
- Lyon 2-3 PSG (23 February 2025, Ligue 1)
- PSG 3-1 Lyon (15 December 2024, Ligue 1)
- PSG 4-1 Lyon (21 April 2024, Ligue 1)
PSG have won four of the last five league meetings, and both teams scored in every one of them. Lyon have won three of their last six league visits to the Parc des Princes (L3), as many as in their previous 30 such matches, and PSG have conceded in each of the last seven league H2Hs they hosted.
Why we’re backing it
PSG are 1.36 to win, with models giving them 57-67%, but we see better value in both teams to score. Both teams have scored in each of the last seven meetings, PSG have conceded in each of their last seven home league games against Lyon, and Lyon have scored in each of their last six away league games at PSG. The model probability of 79% sits well above the 67% implied by the 1.50 price. PSG will also be short of attacking depth, with Dembélé and Kvaratskhelia out and several players hurt in Tuesday’s win over Barcelona, so a clean sheet is no certainty for either side.
The risk is that PSG’s attack is simply too strong. They have scored in 52 straight home league games, have hit 4-2 wins against Manchester City and Barcelona, and Lyon are coming off a 3-0 defeat at Hoffenheim, so a one-sided win is possible. Lyon’s last three away games all produced exactly three goals, which supports our over 2.5 goals lean at 1.33, though at that price we see it as the safe option rather than the value one. PSG to win at 1.36 is the most likely result but offers little return.
Betting tips summary
- Safe pick: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.33
- Value pick: Both teams to score @ 1.50 <- our recommended bet
- Long shot: PSG to win 2-1 (correct score) @ 9.00
Frequently asked questions
Who will win PSG vs Lyon? PSG are the favourites at 1.36 and the models give them 57-67%, with Lyon at about 25% and the draw at 18%. We think the better bet is both teams to score at 1.50.
What is the correct score prediction for PSG vs Lyon? 2-1 to PSG is our pick at 9.00, with 2-0 and 1-1 also close in most models.
What time does PSG vs Lyon kick off? Monday 26 October 2026 at 20:30 WAT (19:30 GMT, 20:30 local time in Paris), at the Parc des Princes.
Will both teams score? Yes is our pick at 79%. Both teams have scored in each of the last seven meetings, and Lyon have scored in each of their last six away league games at PSG.
Will there be over 2.5 goals? We make it 72%. Lyon’s last three away matches all produced exactly three goals, and the last six league meetings between the clubs all went over 2.5.
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