Our prediction: Pistons moneyline @ -124, and Under 218.5. The 76ers (7-1) visit Little Caesars Arena in Detroit on Wednesday 4 November, 7 p.m. ET, and the Pistons (6-1) are only 1.5-point favourites despite owning the league’s best defence and a 6-1 record against the spread. More daily picks sit on our NBA predictions and tips page.
The card
| Market | Our pick | Line | Confidence |
| Spread | Pistons -1.5 | -124 | 62% |
| Moneyline | Pistons | -110 | 66% |
| Total | Under 218.5 | 110 | 60% |
| Player prop | Cade Cunningham over assists line assists | 122 | 57% |
| Best bet | Pistons moneyline | -124 | — |
Team news
Detroit Pistons (6-1) have won three in a row and sit second in the East after a 124-91 demolition of the Hornets. Only two of their seven games have been at home, so this is a team that has banked its record largely on the road. Jalen Duren (hamstring) and Isaiah Joe (hip) are both listed as injured, which thins the frontcourt and the shooting off the bench. Cade Cunningham is the engine at 23.7 points, 5.4 rebounds and 7.1 assists per game, with Duncan Robinson (17.9 points) and Paul Reed (13.4 points, 6.7 rebounds) providing the support.
Philadelphia 76ers (7-1) lead the East and have won four straight, most recently 126-107 against the Bulls. Tyrese Maxey is averaging 29.1 points across eight games, Jaylen Brown adds 20.6 points and 6.9 rebounds, and LeBron James is running the offence at 16.2 points, 7.0 rebounds and 7.3 assists. Ariel Hukporti (Achilles) and Dominick Barlow (back) are listed as injured, though neither is central to the rotation.
Why we’re on Detroit
The market is making this almost a pick’em, and that undersells Detroit. The Pistons allow 100.3 points per game, the best figure in the league against a 113.6 average, and their +11.6 point differential is third best. They have also beaten this exact opponent already this season, 106-93 in Philadelphia, and won the series 4-0 last year.
The obvious counter is ball security. Philadelphia turn it over just 12.8 times per game, the best rate in the league, while Detroit force 18.6, second best. Something has to give, and we side with the defence that is doing it against everyone: the Pistons have covered in six of their seven games with a set spread. The Duren absence is the real risk to that read, because it costs Detroit rim protection, which is why we prefer the moneyline to laying the points.
The under comes from the same place. Philadelphia are the second best defence in the league at 105.1 points allowed, and opponents are shooting 43.2% against them (league average 45.9%). Pistons games have gone over in only three of eight, 76ers games in just two of eight, and the last five meetings averaged 217.2 combined points, below tonight’s 218.5. We project Detroit 109, Philadelphia 104, which is 213 total.
Cade Cunningham to go over his assists line is the supporting bet. With Duren and Joe out, more of the playmaking load runs through him, and he is already averaging 7.1 per game. Check the line before you bet: we like it at or below his season average.
Best bets summary
Safe: Pistons moneyline @ -124
Value: Under 218.5 price
Prop: Cade Cunningham over assists line assists price
Spread play: Pistons -1.5 price
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FAQ
Who is favoured in Pistons vs 76ers? Detroit are 1.5-point home favourites at -124 on the moneyline, with Philadelphia at +106. numberFire gives the Pistons a 77.8% chance to win, and we are backing them.
What is the over/under for Pistons vs 76ers? The total is 218.5. We project 213 combined points and recommend the under.
What time is Pistons vs 76ers? Wednesday 4 November, 7 p.m. ET at Little Caesars Arena, Detroit. It is on ESPN.
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