Our prediction: Pelicans -5.5 @ -110, and Over 235.5 @ -105. New Orleans host Utah at the Smoothie King Center on Wednesday 4 November, 8 p.m. ET, and the Jazz arrive on a five-game losing streak with a short rotation.
The card
| Market | Our pick | Line | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pelicans -5.5 | -110 | 60% |
| Total | Over 235.5 | -105 | 54% |
| Moneyline | Pelicans | -217 | 66% |
| Best bet | Pelicans -5.5 | -110 | 60% |
Lines vary slightly by book. FanDuel has the Pelicans at -205 on the moneyline and the Jazz at +172, with the spread at 5.5 and the total at 235.5.
Team news
New Orleans Pelicans (3–4) are 11th in the West and 2–2 at home. They have won their last three games, the latest a 135–134 result in Memphis. Zion Williamson is averaging 21.3 points, 5.4 rebounds and 2.7 steals, Dejounte Murray 17.8 points and 6.0 assists, and Derik Queen 12.4 points and 7.7 rebounds. Yves Missi is out with a knee injury.
Utah Jazz (1–6) are 14th in the West, 0–2 on the road and have lost five straight, the latest a 119–97 defeat in San Antonio. Keyonte George leads them with 19.6 points and 5.4 assists, Darryn Peterson has 13.4 points and Ace Bailey 12.1 points and 7.6 rebounds. Jusuf Nurkic (foot) and Jaren Jackson (knee) are out, and Mohamed Bamba is questionable with an ankle injury.
Head to head: Utah lead this season’s series 1–0 after a 120–119 win over New Orleans on 23 October. The Pelicans won last season’s series 3–0.
Why we’re on New Orleans
This is a mismatch on the numbers. The Pelicans score 121.9 points per game, third-best in the league, and shoot 49.6% from the field, also third-best. The Jazz score 107.0 points per game, fifth-worst, shoot 42.8% and have a point differential of -11.9, fourth-worst. Utah have also covered the spread only once all season, while New Orleans are 5–2 against the spread.
The Jazz are short of frontcourt bodies with Nurkic and Jackson out and Bamba questionable, and they were beaten by 22 in San Antonio on Monday. At 5.5 points, we think the Pelicans cover.
The over is the smaller play. The five meetings between the teams have averaged 249.6 combined points, and the market has set 235.5 for a game in which the Pelicans should get to their usual scoring numbers. Our projection is Pelicans 122, Jazz 114, which is 236 combined points.
We aren’t ignoring the risks. The Jazz beat New Orleans 120–119 in the last meeting, so the Pelicans have already shown they can lose this game. The Jazz are also a poor offence that has gone over the total in only one of seven games, and the Pelicans make just 9.6 three-pointers per game, second-worst in the league, so the over has a low margin.
We rate the spread as the stronger play.
Best bets summary
- Safe: Pelicans moneyline @ -217
- Value: Pelicans -5.5 @ -110
- Smaller play: Over 235.5 @ -105
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FAQ
Who is favoured in Pelicans vs Jazz? New Orleans are home favourites by 5.5 points, with a moneyline around -217 and Utah around +180. We back the Pelicans to win and cover.
What is the over/under for Pelicans vs Jazz? The total is 235.5. We project 236 combined points and lean to the over.
What time is Pelicans vs Jazz? Wednesday 4 November, 8 p.m. ET at the Smoothie King Center, New Orleans.
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