Our prediction: 76ers -1.5 @ -110, and Under 238.5 @ -110. Philadelphia (3–1) visit Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Wednesday 28 October, 7 p.m. ET, as only 1.5-point favourites against Indiana (2–2), and they have won the last five meetings between the teams.
The card
| Market | Our pick | Line | Confidence |
| Spread | 76ers -1.5 | -110 | 58% |
| Moneyline | 76ers | -126 | 60% |
| Total | Under 238.5 | -110 | 60% |
| Player prop | Tyrese Maxey over [points line] | [odds] | 57% |
| Best bet | 76ers -1.5 | -110 | — |
Team news
Indiana Pacers (2–2) lost 110–102 to the Milwaukee Bucks in their last game and have one home loss in their last four. The injury list is long. T.J. McConnell (muscle), Ben Sheppard (knee), Johnny Furphy (knee) and Ivica Zubac (ankle) are all listed, while Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring) and Andrew Nembhard (illness) are questionable. Haliburton is averaging 21.8 points and 9.5 assists, and Nembhard 16.0 points and 5.7 assists, so losing either hits the offence hard. Pascal Siakam leads the team at 23.5 points and 7.8 rebounds. Indiana average 116.5 points a game and rank third in the league in assists, so the offence works when the ball moves.
Philadelphia 76ers (3–1) last lost 106–93 to the Detroit Pistons at home, and have one away win in their last four. Their injury list is made up of depth players: Ariel Hukporti (achilles), Tacko Fall (hip), Jabari Walker (knee) and Dominick Barlow (back). The main scorers are healthy. Tyrese Maxey is averaging 28.8 points, Joel Embiid 21.7 points and 9.7 rebounds, and Jaylen Brown 20.8 points and 5.8 rebounds.
Head-to-head
This is the first meeting of the season. Philadelphia won last season’s series 4–0, and their most recent meeting ended in a 105–94 win in Indianapolis.
What the market and the models say
The market has this close. The 76ers are -1.5 with a -126 moneyline at FanDuel, and the total is 238.5 (237.5 at some books). Most models lean the same way: numberFire gives Philadelphia a 69% chance to win, Dimers gives them 56.7% with a projected 119–117 score, and Bleacher Nation projects 113–111 with the under. Pickswise is the notable dissent, backing the Pacers moneyline as a home underdog.
Why we’re on Philadelphia
The 76ers have the stronger, healthier top three, and they have beaten this opponent five times in a row, including at Indiana’s arena. The Pacers have two key guards on the questionable list and four more players out, and Indiana were 16–25 against the spread on the road last season. They did cover at home (24–17), so this is a modest edge, not a lock. The 1.5 points matter, and we would rather lay -110 on the spread than pay -126 for the moneyline.
The under is the stronger read. The total of 238.5 is about ten points above the 228.3 combined points per game these teams averaged last season, and the last five meetings averaged only 219.4. The projections we found sit at or below the line too: 236 at Dimers, 224 at Bleacher Nation, and 221–223 from Tony’s Picks, who also back the under.
Tyrese Maxey over [points line] is the supporting bet. He is averaging 28.8 points through four games and carries the scoring load whenever Philadelphia need a basket.
Best bets summary
- Safe: 76ers -1.5 @ -110
- Value: Under 238.5 @ -110
- Prop: Tyrese Maxey over [points line] @ [odds]
- Long shot: Pacers moneyline @ +108
FAQ
Who is favoured in Pacers vs 76ers? Philadelphia are 1.5-point favourites, and we’re laying the points with them.
What is the over/under for Pacers vs 76ers? The total is 238.5 at most books. The last five meetings averaged 219.4 combined points, and we recommend the under.
What time is Pacers vs 76ers? Wednesday 28 October, 7 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, on ESPN.
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Before publishing
- Lines are as of 28 October from FanDuel, SportsBetting and Dimers and move before tip-off. Recheck the spread, the total and the moneyline.
- I couldn’t find a Maxey points prop line, so that line and its odds are still blank.
- The injury list and player averages come from your Flashscore notes. I couldn’t confirm them against tonight’s official report, so recheck Haliburton and Nembhard.
- The confidence percentages are editorial estimates, not sourced figures.
- Every US post must link its own sport’s money page. The NBA money page is linked above.
Sources