Our prediction: a half-time draw @ 2.05. Top-four chasing Liverpool host reigning champions Arsenal at Anfield, after the two sides finished on opposite ends of Carabao Cup penalty shootouts in midweek. Liverpool have failed to score before half-time in eight of their last ten league games, and Arsenal have trailed at the break only five times in 46. The Liverpool vs Arsenal clash kicks off at Anfield on Sunday 1 November at 17:30 WAT (16:30 GMT).
Prediction table
| Market | Our pick | Odds (1xBet) | Confidence |
| Match result | Arsenal win | 2.44 | 38% |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 57% |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 goals | 1.45 | 72% |
| Correct score | 1-1 | 6.50 | 12% |
| Best value bet / Matchplug Pick | Half-time draw | 2.05 | 48% |
Odds correct at time of writing, 1 November 2026. Prices marked ~ are estimates in line with the market, used where a live 1xBet price was not published.
Team news and form
Liverpool may not be playing scintillating football, but they have won nine of their last 11 matches (D1, L1), the latest a Carabao Cup penalty shootout win against Chelsea in midweek. That is three wins in a row at Anfield for Andoni Iraola’s side. The Spanish manager has lost just two of his 27 Premier League games in 2026 (W12, D13), although one of those defeats came at home to Arsenal when he was in charge of Bournemouth last season, and Liverpool have won only two of their last nine Sunday home league games (D4, L3).
Arsenal suffered a harrowing upset in midweek, losing on penalties to League Two side Fleetwood. Before that there was little negative to say: they had won 16 of their last 18 matches (D1, L1), including a 2-0 win over Everton in their last league game to keep pace with Manchester City. They have won five of their last six away league games (L1), and their next away league win will be their 300th in the Premier League, a mark only Manchester United have reached.
Cody Gakpo scored against Arsenal late in 2024/25, but 11 of his 12 goals for Liverpool since have come after half-time. Arsenal’s Bruno GuimarĂŁes has never won a Premier League head-to-head against Liverpool (D1, L5), yet his last four produced a goal, two assists and two yellow cards. Liverpool are likely to be without VĂctor Muñoz and Dominik Szoboszlai again, while Arsenal are without Bukayo Saka and William Saliba and the suspended Max Dowman.
Head-to-head – Previous meetings
- Liverpool have lost just two of the last 14 meetings (W6, D6)
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 13 league meetings with Arsenal at Anfield (W8, D5)
- Arsenal have never gone 14 away league head-to-heads without a win before
- Arsenal’s win rate at Anfield (18%) is their lowest at any ground they have visited ten or more times
- Most recent meeting: Arsenal 0-0 Liverpool (8 January 2026)
Both league meetings last season finished with fewer than three goals, which fits a cagey first half.
Why we’re backing it
The half-time draw rests on how both sides start. Liverpool have failed to score before the break in eight of their last ten league games and tend to grow into matches, with four of their five home league goals conceded after the hour. Arsenal have trailed at half-time in only five of their last 46 league games (W20, D21), and they are the only team yet to concede after the 60th minute. With Saka and Saliba missing for Arsenal and Szoboszlai out for Liverpool, a patient first 45 minutes looks likely.
The risk is Arsenal getting in front early, since they have led at half-time in 20 of those 46 games, so a first-half goal for either side would end the bet. A half-time draw at around 2.05 is close to a coin flip, so we rate it at 48%. For lower risk, Under 3.5 goals fits the cautious tone of these meetings, and for a full-time angle the draw with both teams to score is available at around 4.30.
Betting tips summary
- Safe pick: Under 3.5 goals @ ~1.45
- Value pick: Half-time draw @ ~2.05 <- *our recommended bet*
- Long shot: Draw & both teams to score @ 4.30
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Liverpool vs Arsenal? It is very tight. Arsenal are slight favourites on form and the odds, and our model gives them a 38% win probability, with the draw around 26% and Liverpool 36%.
What is the correct score prediction for Liverpool vs Arsenal? 1-1 is our most likely single scoreline at 12% probability, in line with the 0-0 between the sides in January.
What time does Liverpool vs Arsenal kick off? Sunday 1 November 2026 at 17:30 WAT (16:30 GMT), at Anfield in Liverpool.
Will the match be level at half-time? Yes is our pick at 48% confidence. Liverpool have failed to score before half-time in eight of their last ten league games and Arsenal have trailed at the break in only five of their last 46.
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