Our prediction: Bologna to win to nil @ 3.40. Matchday six in Serie A sees mid-table Lecce host Bologna, who changed head coach before the international break after a dismal start to the season. The Lecce vs Bologna clash kicks off at the Stadio Via del Mare in Lecce on Sunday 11 October at 14:00 WAT (14:00 BST).
Prediction Table
|
Market |
Our pick |
Odds (1xBet) |
Confidence |
|
Match result |
Bologna win |
1.98 |
49% |
|
Both teams to score |
No |
1.91 |
68% |
|
Total goals |
Under 2.5 goals |
1.89 |
58% |
|
Correct score |
0-1 |
7.00 |
13% |
|
Best value bet / MatchplugPick |
Bologna win to nil |
3.40 |
28% |
Odds correct at time of writing, 8 October 2026.
Team news and form
Lecce have lost three of their five Serie A games, including a 3-0 defeat at AC Milan last time out, but wins over Venezia (2-0) and Monza (3-2) give them six points. That is four more than Eusebio Di Francesco’s side had at this stage last season. Lecce have gone a league-high nine Serie A matches without a draw (W5, L4), and they have drawn only one of their last nine at home (W4, L4).
Bologna sacked summer appointment Domenico Tedesco after three defeats in their first four matches (D1) and replaced him with Raffaele Palladino. Palladino earned a 1-1 draw against Torino in his first game. After four consecutive top-ten finishes, Bologna sit in the relegation zone with their lowest points total at this stage of a season since 2011/12, and they could take fewer than three points from their first six games of a Serie A season for the first time ever.
Lecce defender Danilo Veiga has been booked three times in Serie A this season, all in the second half. Bologna’s Riccardo Orsolini has scored a career-high seven goals against Lecce, and three of his last four goals against any opponent came after half-time. Medon Berisha has missed Lecce’s last two games. Bologna are without Jens Odgaard and Emil Holm, but striker Artem Dovbyk is expected to return from injury.
Head-to-head – Last 5 Meetings
Bologna have not lost any of the last 11 meetings with Lecce (W7, D4), their longest unbeaten run against any current Serie A side.
Why we’re backing it
Bologna have the head-to-head edge, with seven wins and four draws in 11 meetings, and they are due a response under their new coach. Dovbyk’s expected return and Orsolini’s record against Lecce, seven career goals, give them a clear route to a win.
The goal patterns support a clean sheet. Eight of Bologna’s last 11 matches produced under 2.5 goals, and only one of Lecce’s last seven competitive matches saw both teamsscore. Lecce also rarely draw, which means the result tends to go one way.
Betting tips summary
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lecce vs Bologna? Bologna are our pick. They have not lost in the last 11 meetings with Lecce and have a new head coach. Our model gives Bologna a 49% win probability.
What is the correct score prediction for Lecce vs Bologna? 0-1 is our most likely single scoreline at 13% probability.
What time does Lecce vs Bologna kick off? Sunday 11 October 2026 at 14:00 WAT (14:00 BST), at the Stadio Via del Mare in Lecce.
Will Bologna win to nil? Yes is our pick at 28% confidence. Only one of Lecce’s last seven competitive matches saw both teams score, and eight of Bologna’s last 11 matches had under 2.5 goals.