Our prediction: Bulls +11.5 @ -105, and Under 233.5 @ -105. Chicago visit Madison Square Garden on Wednesday 4 November, 7:30 p.m. ET, and the market is asking the Knicks to win by a margin they haven’t shown this season.
The card
| Market | Our pick | Line | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bulls +11.5 | -105 | 60% |
| Total | Under 233.5 | -105 | 55% |
| Moneyline | Bulls | +443 | 15% |
| Best bet | Bulls +11.5 | -105 | 60% |
Lines vary by book. The spread ranges from 11.5 to 12.5 and the total from 233.5 to 234.5, so check your own price. The Knicks are about -597 on the moneyline.
Team news
New York Knicks (3–4) sit eighth in the East and are 2–2 at home. They won their last game 103–90 over the Nets at Madison Square Garden. Jalen Brunson is averaging 24.6 points and 5.3 assists, Karl-Anthony Towns 20.3 points and 13.9 rebounds, and Josh Hart 8.6 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.9 assists. Hart is questionable with an ankle injury.
Chicago Bulls (1–6) are 15th in the East, 1–4 on the road and have lost five straight, the latest a 126–107 defeat to the 76ers. Rookie Caleb Wilson leads them with 21.6 points, Norman Powell adds 20.3 and Josh Giddey has 9.1 points and 7.9 assists. Nicolas Claxton is questionable with a hamstring injury.
Head to head: New York lead this season’s series 1–0 after a 133–127 win in Chicago on 28 October. They won last season’s series 3–1.
Why we’re on Chicago
The Bulls are a bad team, but 11.5 points is a lot for a Knicks side that is scoring 106.4 points per game, fourth-worst in the league, and shooting 41.9% from the field, also fourth-worst. A team that struggles to score is hard to trust to win by 12. New York are also 2–5 against the spread in their last eight, while Chicago are 6–2 against the spread in their last eight against the Knicks. The last meeting finished by six points.
The under comes from the same read. The Knicks allow 105.1 points per game, second-best in the league, and the Bulls have the league’s worst three-point percentage (27.9%) and fourth-worst assist numbers. Put the two season averages together and the game lands in the high 220s. Our projection is Knicks 120, Bulls 110, which is 230 combined points.
We aren’t ignoring the risks. The Bulls have the worst point differential in the league (-16.3 per game) and give up close to 129 points a game, so New York can score on them. The five meetings between the teams have averaged 240.0 points, and the Knicks have scored 128 or more in three of the last four, which is why the under is the smaller play.
The Bulls moneyline at +443 is a long shot only.
Best bets summary
- Safe: Bulls +11.5 @ -105
- Value: Under 233.5 @ -105
- Long shot: Bulls moneyline @ +443
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FAQ
Who is favoured in Knicks vs Bulls? New York are heavy home favourites by about 11.5 to 12.5 points, with a moneyline around -597. Our model makes it nearer ten points and we’re taking the points with Chicago.
What is the over/under for Knicks vs Bulls? The total is 233.5 at most books. We project 230 combined points and recommend the under.
What time is Knicks vs Bulls? Wednesday 4 November, 7:30 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden, New York. It’s on MSG.
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