Our prediction: Bucks +11.5 @ -110, and Over 223.5 @ -110. Milwaukee (1-6) visit TD Garden on Wednesday 4 November, 7:30 p.m. ET, and the market is asking Boston to cover a double-digit spread while Jayson Tatum is listed as questionable. More daily picks sit on our NBA predictions and tips page.
The card
| Market | Our pick | Line | Confidence |
| Spread | Bucks +11.5 | -110 | 56% |
| Moneyline | Celtics | -500 | 84% |
| Total | Over 223.5 | -110 | 55% |
| Player prop | Jayson Tatum under 27.5 points | 115 | 55% |
| Best bet | Bucks +11.5 | -110 | 56% |
Team news
Boston Celtics (5-2) are third in the East and have won their last four at home, but they come in off a 109-93 loss at Houston on Monday. Tatum is listed as questionable with rest after playing back-to-back nights, and he is averaging 27.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 7.9 assists. Paul George (20.7 points, 2.3 steals in six games) and Derrick White (11.1 points, 4.9 assists) support him. Devin Carter is out ill and Payton Pritchard is questionable with a shoulder injury.
Milwaukee Bucks (1-6) sit 14th in the East and have lost three in a row, all on the road, the latest 112-100 at Minnesota. Tyler Herro leads them at 21.9 points, with Jaime Jaquez Jr. adding 16.6 points and 7.3 rebounds and Kyle Kuzma 10.0 points and 6.4 rebounds. No Milwaukee absences have been reported.
Why we’re on Milwaukee
To be clear, this is a points play, not a belief that the Bucks are good. They are being outscored by 13.0 per game, the third worst differential in the league, and they allow 124.1 points per game, third worst against a 113.6 average. Boston beat them three times in four meetings last season, including 133-101 in the most recent one.
But 11.5 is a big number for this Celtics team. Boston are only 3-4 against the spread, they managed just 43 second-half points at Houston, and the one player who drives their offence may be rested. Milwaukee’s strength is on the glass: 49.6 rebounds per game is second best in the league against a 44.1 average, and the extra possessions help a bad team stay inside a big spread. The line has also come down from around 14.5 at the open, so we are not paying for a stale number.
The over comes from the Milwaukee defence. Bucks games have gone over in five of seven, Boston average 115.0 points, and a defence giving up 124.1 per night should let them score. We project Boston 118, Milwaukee 108, which is 226. The caution is head-to-head: the last five meetings averaged only 208.4 combined points, but those games came with last season’s rosters and totals set 7 to 10 points lower.
Tyler Herro over his points line is the supporting bet. He has scored 21 or more in five of seven games, including 34 against Chicago, and Milwaukee need his scoring to keep this close. Check the line before you bet: we like the over at or below 21.5.
Best bets summary
Safe: Bucks +11.5 @ -110
Value: Over 223.5 @ -110
Prop: Tyler Herro over points line points price
Long shot: Bucks moneyline @ +385
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FAQ
Who is favoured in Celtics vs Bucks? Boston are 11.5-point home favourites, at -500 on the moneyline with Milwaukee at +385. We expect the Celtics to win but are taking the points with the Bucks.
What is the over/under for Celtics vs Bucks? The total is 223.5. We project 226 combined points and recommend the over.
Is Jayson Tatum playing vs the Bucks? He is listed as questionable with rest after back-to-back games. Check the final injury report before tip-off, because a Tatum absence would change both the spread and the total.
What time is Celtics vs Bucks? Wednesday 4 November, 7:30 p.m. ET at TD Garden, Boston.
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