Our prediction: Besiktas to win and over 2.5 goals @ 1.80. Besiktas are the clear favourites at home in round nine, with a four-match winning run at the Tüpraş Stadium, while Basaksehir have only a 12% chance of winning and are winless in three away. The Besiktas vs Basaksehir clash kicks off in Istanbul on Monday 26 October at 17:00 WAT (16:00 GMT).
Prediction table
| Market | Our pick | Odds (1xBet) | Confidence |
| Match result | Besiktas win | 1.35 | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.63 | 59% |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 68% |
| Correct score | 2-1 | ~9.00 | 10% |
| Best value bet / Matchplug Pick | Besiktas win & over 2.5 goals | ~1.80 | 58% |
Odds correct at time of writing, 26 October 2026. Prices marked ~ are estimates in line with the market, used where a live 1xBet price was not published.
Team news and form
Besiktas are sixth in the league with 15 points. They lost 0-2 away at Trabzonspor in their last league match, but they have won three of their last five (L2) and are on a four-match winning run at home. Dusan Vlahovic has six goals for the club, all of them in his last five matches, at an average match rating of 7.4, and Leandro Trossard has one goal and one assist in seven games. Milot Rashica is out with a muscle injury and Orkun Kökçü is out with a foot injury, having contributed two goals and two assists this season.
Basaksehir are 11th with 11 points. They won 2-1 at home to Gaziantep in their last league match and have taken two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five, but they are winless in three away from home. Eldor Shomurodov has seven goals and one assist at an average rating of 7.2 and sits joint third in the scoring charts, Andreas Skov Olsen has one goal and two assists in eight games, and Ivan Brnić has two assists. Christopher Operi and Jérôme Opoku are both missing.
The numbers favour the hosts. Besiktas convert 55% of their big chances (second best, league average 36%), get 31.9 touches in the opposition box per match (third best, league average 21.3) and concede an expected 1.00 goals per match (second best, league average 1.46). Their weakness is errors leading to goals: five, the second most in the league. Basaksehir make the most errors leading to a shot in the league (0.75 per match, average 0.38) and make the fewest tackles (9.1 per match). Emirhan Topçu and Umut Güneş have each collected three yellow cards in their last six appearances. Onur Bulut joined Basaksehir from Besiktas, where he made 53 appearances over three seasons.
Head-to-head – Previous meetings
- The last five meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game
- Most recent meeting (last season): Basaksehir 2-3 Besiktas
The head-to-head is not especially high-scoring, which is the main reason we back the goals as part of a win rather than on their own.
Why we’re backing it
Besiktas should dominate. Their big-chance conversion and box touches are among the best in the league, Vlahovic is scoring in every game, and Basaksehir have the worst record for errors leading to a shot and make the fewest tackles. Bookmakers put the chance of over 2.5 goals at 68%, with an implied total of 3.5 goals, and give Basaksehir only a 12% chance of winning. Shomurodov gives the visitors a way to score, and bookmakers see a 59% chance of both teams scoring.
The risk is the Besiktas defence. Their expected goals conceded is the second best in the league, so if they win it could be a tidy 2-0 or 3-0, which still lands the goals line. A 1-0 would not, and Besiktas lost 0-2 at Trabzonspor and are without Rashica and Kökçü. That is why we combine the win and the goals line, which pays better than the 1.35 win alone, and keep the winner on its own as the safe option.
Betting tips summary
- Safe pick: Besiktas to win @ 1.35
- Value pick: Besiktas to win & over 2.5 goals @ ~1.80 <- *our recommended bet*
- Long shot: Besiktas to win 3-0 (correct score) @ 7.50
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Besiktas vs Basaksehir? Besiktas are the clear favourites. They have won their last four home games and bookmakers give Basaksehir just a 12% chance. Our model gives Besiktas a 72% win probability.
What is the correct score prediction for Besiktas vs Basaksehir? 2-1 to Besiktas is our pick at 10% probability, with 1-0 and 2-0 close behind.
What time does Besiktas vs Basaksehir kick off? Monday 26 October 2026 at 17:00 WAT (16:00 GMT), at the Tüpraş Stadium in Istanbul.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Besiktas vs Basaksehir? Yes is our pick at 68% confidence. Bookmakers imply 3.5 goals in the match, and Besiktas convert 55% of their big chances.
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