Our prediction: Over 4.5 @ 2.90. Bayern Munich travel to Augsburg, the only team to have beaten them in their last 47 Bundesliga matches (W37, D9), with the hosts targeting back-to-back wins over Bayern in all competitions for the first time since the 1950s. The Augsburg vs Bayern Munich clash kicks off at the WWK Arena in Augsburg on Saturday, 10 October at 14:30 WAT (14:30 BST).
Prediction table
|
Market |
Our pick |
Odds (1xBet) |
Confidence |
|
Match result |
Bayern Munich win |
1.19 |
80% |
|
Both teams to score |
Yes |
1.70 |
70% |
|
Total goals |
Over 4.5 |
2.90 |
34% |
|
Correct score |
1-3 |
10.00 |
11% |
|
Best value bet / MatchplugPick |
Over 4.5 |
2.90 |
34% |
Odds correct at time of writing, 8 October 2026.
Team news and form
Augsburg won their first three competitive games of 2026/27 but took one point from their last two, against Bayer Leverkusen and Werder Bremen. They went ahead in both games and still conceded five across the two defeats, and they start this matchday second only to Eintracht Frankfurt for minutes spent ahead in the Bundesliga this season. Manuel Baum’s side wants to avoid back-to-back defeats for the first time since March and has lost only once in their last 14 games at the WWK Arena (W7, D6).
Bayern have won six of their seven competitive games this term (D1) and arrive after a 7-0 win over Union Berlin, their joint-biggest Bundesliga victory under Vincent Kompany. They have scored only twice in their first two away league games, their lowest such tally since 2017/18, but they are unbeaten in 28 Bundesliga away games (W21, D7) and closing in on the club record of 33 between 2012 and 2014.
Fabian Rieder is one of only three players with at least one goal contribution in each of the first four Bundesliga matchdays (G1, A3). Michael Olise has 13 goal involvements (G9, A4) in his last seven games for club or country, though only one of them (a goal) came before half-time. Noahkai Banks is injured for Augsburg and Jamal Musiala is out for Bayern.
Head-to-head – Last 5 meetings
Bayern have won 11 of their 15 Bundesliga away meetings with Augsburg (D1, L3). Before losing the last meeting, they had won each of their previous seven competitive games against them.
Why we’re backing it
Augsburg games are producing goals. Their last six league games averaged 4.2 goals, and they conceded five across their last two matches. Bayern’s 7-0 win over Union Berlin shows how quickly the total can climb once they find space.
Over 4.5 is a demanding line, and Bayern scored only twice in their first two away league games. Bayern have also kept clean sheets in three of their last four games, so Augsburg’s share of the goals is the uncertain part. The recent scoring rate on both sides still makes this a fair price for a high-scoring game.
Betting tips summary
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Augsburg vs Bayern Munich? Bayern are the favourites. They have won six of seven competitive games this term and are unbeaten in 28 Bundesliga away games, but Augsburg are the only side to have beaten them in their last 47 league matches. Our model gives Bayern an 80% win probability.
What is the correct score prediction for Augsburg vs Bayern Munich? 1-3 is our most likely single scoreline at 11% probability.
What time does Augsburg vs Bayern Munich kick off?Saturday 10 October 2026 at 14:30 WAT (14:30 BST), at the WWK Arena in Augsburg.
Will there be over 4.5 goals? Yes is our pick at 34%confidence. Augsburg’s last six league games averaged 4.2 goals, and Bayern scored seven in their last match.
Follow every pick live in our free Telegram channel. More: Over 2.5 goals tips · Both teams to score tips · Bet builder tips · How to subscribe · Matchplug blog