Four of the last five Milan derbies finished with two goals or fewer, and both sides are short of attackers: AC Milan have four players out, while Inter are still without Lautaro MartĂnez. The AC Milan vs Inter clash kicks off at San Siro in Milan on Saturday 31 October at 19:45 GMT (20:45 WAT).
Prediction table
| Market | Our pick | Odds (1xBet) | Confidence |
| Match result | Inter win | 1.95 | 45% |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 44% |
| Player to score or assist | Marcus Thuram | 1.83 | 60% |
| Best value bet / Matchplug Pick | Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 44% |
Inter win, under 2.5 goals and Thuram prices are 1xBet odds as listed by Goal.com Nigeria on 31 October 2026 (AC Milan win was 3.50 and the draw 3.60 in a recent 1xBet snapshot on Mightytips). Confidence: Sportytrader model for the result, the implied probability of the price for under 2.5, and Goal.com’s estimate for Thuram. Re-check prices on 1xBet before publishing.
Team news and form
AC Milan threw away a lead and lost 4-2 at home to Bologna on Wednesday, their first Serie A defeat under Ruben Amorim (W5, D3). They have 18 points after nine games, their lowest tally at this stage in all but one season since 2019/20, and sit seven points behind Inter. They have conceded at least twice in three of their last four games, and two of Amorim’s three losses in charge have come at San Siro. Alphadjo Cisse scored his first two goals at San Siro in midweek and has scored Milan’s first goal in all four of his scoring appearances for the club.
Inter lead Serie A on goals scored from Lazio after beating bottom side Venezia, with two late own goals settling the game. It was their eighth win in nine league games, the first time they have done that since 1988/89, a season that ended with the title. Cristian Chivu’s side have won all five of their Serie A games at San Siro this term, and have scored a league-high nine goals after the 75th minute. They have led at half-time in only two league games this season (D6, L1).
AC Milan are without Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Diego Moreira and Adrien Rabiot, and Fikayo Tomori is a new injury concern after midweek. Inter remain without captain Lautaro MartĂnez. Check the latest team news before kick-off.
Head-to-head – Recent meetings
- AC Milan 1-0 Inter (8 March 2026, Serie A)
- Inter 0-1 AC Milan (23 November 2025, Serie A)
After losing the six meetings before it, AC Milan are unbeaten in seven against Inter in all competitions (W5, D2), their longest such run in this fixture in over 20 years. Hakan Çalhanoğlu scored Inter’s last goal in the fixture in April 2025 and has picked up a joint career-high six yellow cards against his former club. AC Milan have lost only one of their last 13 home league games in this kick-off slot (W7, D5).
Why we’re backing it
The case for under 2.5 goals rests on the fixture and the injury lists. Under 2.5 would have won in four of the last five derbies, with two 1-1 draws and two 1-0 results in the last four. Inter have conceded just 10 goals in nine league games, and with Lautaro out and Milan’s squad stretched, neither side has its full attack. AC Milan took a league-low 27 corners in the first nine rounds, which points to a team that creates little from set plays.
The risk is that both teams are leaking goals at the moment: Milan have conceded seven in their last three games in all competitions, and Inter have scored 25 in nine league games. An early goal would also open up a game that otherwise looks cagey, which is why we like Inter to edge it rather than back a draw.
Betting tips summary
- Safe pick: Marcus Thuram to score or assist @ 1.83
- Value pick: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 <- our recommended bet
- Result pick: Inter to win @ 1.95
- Long shot: AC Milan to win @ 3.50
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AC Milan vs Inter? We lean towards a narrow Inter win given their form, but Milan’s unbeaten run in the fixture makes a draw a real possibility. Our main bet is under 2.5 goals.
What time does AC Milan vs Inter kick off? Saturday 31 October 2026 at 19:45 GMT (20:45 WAT), at San Siro in Milan.
Will there be under 2.5 goals? Under is our pick at 2.25 on 1xBet. Four of the last five derbies finished with two goals or fewer.
Who is injured for AC Milan vs Inter? AC Milan are without Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Diego Moreira and Adrien Rabiot, with Fikayo Tomori a concern; Inter are without Lautaro MartĂnez.
When did AC Milan last beat Inter? On 8 March 2026, 1-0 in Serie A. Milan are unbeaten in their last seven against Inter in all competitions.
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